Fixing the Foxes: Get the best from this squad and make us an actual Cooper side
Our big question asked our writers how to fix the Foxes, after two articles more centred on the behind the scenes, off the pitch affairs, Iain Wright is focusing on the matchday team, our tactics and how to get the best from this squad.
When the powers that be at Fosse Way Towers posed the question of how to fix LCFC, there was certainly a degree of, pardon? Where do we start!? So, with several of my colleagues focusing on the off the pitch, I’m going to have a look at where we can improve on it.
For this article, I’m going to ignore what many would consider to be the obvious response (change the manager) and try to work with what we have. Despite a few rumours swirling in the past week, maybe in hope in certain quarters rather than in any truth, it seems almost certain that Steve Cooper will be continuing as manager for the time being. We're not in the drop zone and while that remains the same, I think he'll remain in post.
Therefore, I feel the best way for Steve Cooper to get the best out of this squad is to turn it into an actual Steve Cooper team.
It’s fair to say that his announcement as manager wasn’t greeted with universal approval back in the summer, but the general feeling was that he’d create a team with a bit of fight, which he has, alongside a defensive set-up.
My perception of his Forest teams was that they were tough to beat and reasonably solid defensively. I live on the border between the two counties and floated this theory with several local Forest fans, who all laughed their socks off!
Although he is still well-liked by those I’ve spoken to, they all felt that defensively there were persistent issues back then, which have only been addressed by the appointment of Nuno Espirito Santo. This is certainly grist to the mill for those feeling we need to ‘upgrade’ too.
However, what was clear from Cooper’s time up the A46 was that moving from back four to a back five on occasion seemed to get the best out the players he had available. It worked in both the Championship and during the season where they stayed up at our expense in the Premier League. I think this is something we need to try now, before it's too late.
10 points from 11 games and 15th place does indeed fit the criteria of getting around a point a game and ultimately staying up, but I don’t think that just looking at those numbers and not considering how we’ve got to this point is particularly healthy. It’s definitely got a “play like that and we’ll be absolutely fine” vibe to it.
The plain truth is that the stats don’t look good and it’s unlikely we’ll be fine over 38 games. We’ve conceded 21 goals so far, which is virtually an average of two goals per game, with only Wolves, Ipswich and Brentford having conceded more.
Our Expected Goals Against (xGA) shows us in 18th place, (in a table where the lower you are, the worse it is) once again emphasising the importance of Mads Hermansen, who for the time being is keeping us in a better position in the league table than this chart.
At the other end of the pitch, things are not much better. We’re currently 19th for Expected Goals (xG - once again, the lower you are, the worse it is). Actual goals being better than the expected goals also keeping us out of the drop zone for the time being. This comes back to those moments of brilliance we’ve seen.
Whether it’s xG for and against, shots faced, shots on target faced, shots taken or shots on target, we’re down amongst the dead men. In the recent Fosse Friday email, there was even a stat about ‘The Danger Zone rectangle' and we’re bottom of that too! All of this aligned with the fact that 4 of the 10 points have been gained versus teams down to ten men, suggests that not being in the drop zone does feel very temporary.
Therefore, it’s time for a change of formation. The defence as it is simply isn’t working in my opinion. I’ve never been a fan of Wout Faes and this season has done nothing to change my mind. For every Bournemouth performance (he was outstanding), there’s multiple others where his lack of concentration and inability to smell danger leaves us looking very vulnerable at the back. It’s time for his place to go to someone else.
I’d like to see Caleb Okoli return to the team as I feel his physical presence gives us the bit of muscle that we lack at times. His pass completion is second only to Jannik Vestergaard at almost 90% and those two together should help us retain possession and build through the lines more effectively. I’d then add Conor Coady to make a centre back trio as his experience and leadership should mean that we’re a bit more organised and less chaotic than at present.
Victor Kristiansen would play at left wing-back, as he does for Denmark, but in the Chelsea game especially, his focus will be defending rather than attacking. The big question then is the right wing-back.
James Justin is really out of form and it’s clear teams are targeting his side of the pitch (well, his and Faes’s side). Therefore, I think he needs a spell out of the team to regroup. With Ricardo injured again (sigh), I’m going to suggest Hamza Choudhury comes into the team at right wing-back for the Chelsea game and possibly beyond. He played a number of games at right back last season and his energy and tenacity might be just what we need.
I know there will be many reading this suggestion with indignation, but there really aren’t too many options for that side of the pitch when Ricardo is out. To make it easier for the defenders, this back five will be very much a back five for the Chelsea game; the players further forward can do the attacking.
We haven’t got a Djed Spence-type player, as Cooper had up the road in the Championship, who can maraud forward with menace. Therefore, let’s not try and pretend we have. These guys need to sit tight, reduce the space for Chelsea to operate in and protect us for the times when the ball is lost in midfield.
In front of those five will be Harry Winks and Oliver Skipp. It’s symptomatic of our muddled thinking in the transfer market to spend £20m on Skipp only to then start to play Boubakary Soumare, but I think we need to revert back. I just think Skipp is more consistent and, along with the theme of this team, is better at sensing danger. His energy and passing alongside the metronomic Winks will help us look more solid.
Wilfred Ndidi misses out in this team, but with three centre backs I think we’re covered height-wise and the Winks/Skipp combo offers us more in midfield. Ndidi isn’t the force that he was a few years back but he’s a good option to come off the bench.
For the Chelsea game, Facundo Buonanotte is suspended, and following worrying news from Ghana, Abdul Fatawu and Jordan Ayew may be injured. If that's the case, Bilal El Khannouss and Stephy Mavididi are to play wide and roam around. With the seven players already listed behind them, there shouldn’t be the need for too much defending for them to do. I want them to offer us a threat on the break so that we can burst up the field. They need to chase everything and really press Chelsea.
Generally, Steve Cooper must start making his subs earlier, but that will be more challenging with those listed unavailable or potentially unavailable. It could be a big opportunity for Kasey McAteer to get minutes on the back of his short cameo at Wembley against England on Sunday.
Up top, hopefully it’s Jamie Vardy, if not then Patson Daka comes in to complete this 5-2-3 formation. It’s a defensive set-up against an excellent Chelsea team, but with a real threat on the break and instruction to disrupt (and hopefully capitalise on) the inevitable passing at the back by an Enzo Maresca team. I think this gives us a greater chance of getting a point (or more) than the current set up would.
I fear that, if we stay as we are, we’ll be on the wrong end of something like a 4-1 result. Things have to change because we simply can’t allow Chelsea to have the 20+ shots that almost everyone else has had against us. This team would freshen things up, give us a plan for this game that Enzo hasn’t seen Leicester do yet and then hopefully give us a template for future success.
